18 September 2009

Fred possibly making a comeback, new disturbance in central Atlantic...

Fred was initially classified as a Depression back on Sep 7, then was a major hurricane on Sep 9, dissipated on Sep 12, and after traveling 2000 miles westward as a low-level swirl, is finally making a convective comeback.  However, it won't be an easy path to regeneration... the vertical wind shear is quite strong from the north and expected to only relax slightly in the 1-2 day timeframe.  The SSTs under the storm will be ample to support a strong storm (28-29C) if the shear ends up being less than forecast.  A number of computer models intensify Fred over the next several days as it tracks fairly slowly to the WNW-NW.  The remnant circulation is located about 500 miles of Puerto Rico.

The other feature of interest is a slow-moving easterly wave that exited the African coast on Sep 10 and is now located near 13N 40W, or about 1400 miles east of the Windward Islands.  Similar to the remnants of Fred, the vertical shear is prohibitive for significant strengthening in the foreseeable future.  Some models do show it intensifying in the 4-5 day timeframe.  The next name on the list is Grace should it get named.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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