20 July 2009

Disturbance heading into eastern Caribbean...

An African easterly wave, generated over the Ethiopian Highlands back on July 6 exited the African coast on July 13, and is now located just east of the Lesser Antilles.  It has very slowly gotten better organized, and has a mid-level circulation and persistent deep convection near the center.

The disturbance is expected to continue tracking W-WNW at 15kts through the northern Caribbean over the next several days.  If it does manage to organize, it would become TD2 then TS Ana.  However, it's moving into the northern periphery of a Colombian High where vertical shear is excessive.  In the near future, islands in the Lesser Antilles can expect some rather stormy conditions for a couple days.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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