25 August 2008

Fay gone, Gustav forms...

Long-lived Fay finally dissipated this past weekend, but not without drenching Florida and the southeast.  Past storms like Agnes '72 and Allison '01 come to mind when talking about weak systems that are slow and dump amazing amounts of rain.  You can view the estimated rainfall over the past week at http://water.weather.gov/index.php?layer[]=0&layer[]=1&layer[]=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=STATE&units=engl&timeframe=last7days&timeYYYY=2008&timeMM=8&timeDD=25&product=observed&loc=stateFL

The easterly wave we were watching last week was upgraded to TD7 on Monday morning, then quickly upgraded again to TS Gustav, the seventh named storm of the season.  The intensity as of 21Z is 50kts and 996, tracking WNW at 12kts.  It is forecast to continue moving WNW and possibly intensify very quickly.  There is great disagreement between forecast models and the NHC forecast, so for now, I'll leave the details out.  The countries in its 3-day future are Haiti, Cuba, and possibly Jamaica.  If this storm manages to remain over ocean for longer than expected, it could become very intense given the ideal environmental conditions.

Elsewhere, there's a weak wave near 23N 56W, but vertical shear is strong over that system.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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