18 July 2008

Bertha still lingering, two other disturbances getting organized...

Bertha is still a tropical storm, and is now about 700 miles south of Newfoundland.  The first advisory on Bertha was written on July 3, over two weeks ago!  Phil Klotzbach here at CSU points out that this is now the longest-lived storm in the Atlantic since Alberto '00 at 15.25 days.  It has smashed the record for longest-lived July storm.

Latest intensity is 55kts and 995mb and tracking NE at 16kts.  It still has a very impressive satellite presentation, with a renewed attempt at forming an eyewall and eye.  However, this last-minute perk comes a day or so before it encounters hostile shear and cold ocean temperatures.  It should transition to an extratropical cyclone by the end of the weekend.

Elsewhere, things are getting active.  The easterly wave I first mentioned 9 days ago and have been keeping you updated on (the one that recently passed by the Windwards) is now just north of western Venezuela and has a lot of deep convection near the center of the mid-level circulation.  There is a 1008mb Low embedded in the convection.  Given its location and potential for strengthening, the western Gulf coast has a very long-range heads-up (could be 6-7 days out... IF it makes it). 

Closer to the US, there's a circulation with associated convection just offshore of Georgia.  Conditions are also favorable for this to develop... a huge boost for it is its position directly over the warm Gulf Stream.  You can see it from the Charleston SC long-range radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=clx&loop=yes
It is expected to basically track N-NE along the length of the east coast, which is dangerous if it decides to quickly strengthen!

The next names on the list are Cristobal and Dolly.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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