30 July 2007

Three areas to watch...

There is an area of disturbed weather that migrated northward from Cuba and is now just west of Bermuda.  It's moving NE at 12kts and will only have a brief time to get organized before getting absorbed by an approaching trough and SSTs plummet below 20C.  The present structure suggests that it's subtropical, and a transition to tropical is possible, but not likely.

There is also a potent easterly wave near 11N 47W.  It's moving W at 10kts and has a 1009mb Low embedded within it.  It left the African coast about a week ago, and has not been terribly impressive until today.  SSTs are around 27-27.5C and will be increasing with time as the wave heads westward (up to 28-28.5C). It's in very little vertical shear, and cloud tops over the center have been sustained at -60C.  This has the potential to become the season's first hurricane later this week.

In addition, a second easterly wave at about 29W is on the heels of the first... it left Africa earlier this weekend.  I was unable to find a single model that forecast development of this wave, but it still bears watching.

Should any or all of these get named, the next names on the list are Chantal, Dean, and Erin.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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