Today is the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. There was already a sub-tropical storm back in May named Andrea, and today, a new tropical storm has formed off the northwest tip of Cuba.
It's over the warm Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, but will head toward Florida and over colder waters. The vertical wind shear is the main inhibiting factor now... 40kts of southwesterly shear makes it difficult for a storm to organize. Under this hefty shear, the low-level center is exposed, and the deep cold cloud tops are all being whisked away to the northeast.
Based on aircraft recon, the system was upgraded to TS Barry at 21Z today. It is located at 24.2N 85.5W and tracking N at 10kts. The intensity is 40kts and 1000mb. It is forecast to continue moving northeast and maintain minimal TS intensity. Most track guidance models bring it northeast toward the FL coast by Saturday afternoon, somewhere between Tallahassee and Tampa (centered near Cedar Key). A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for parts of the northern west coast of FL. Keep tuned to the NHC for the latest watches and warnings.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
