08 October 2004

Matthew forms in the Gulf of Mexico...

After several days of slow "brewing", a large area of disturbed weather
in the Bay of Campeche was upgraded to TS Matthew based on an aircraft
recon flight into it today.  This is the 13th named storm of the
season.  The center was at 24.2N 93.8W and tracking E at 9kts.  The
maximum sustained winds are 35kts and the MSLP is 1001mb.

The forecast is tricky because of its proximity to a large mid-latitude
trough that is imposing hefty vertical shear over it.  It should
maintain intensity or perhaps strengthen a bit (thanks to baroclinic
enhancement) as it heads generally NE, probably hitting the Florida
panhandle late Sunday night.

For those who have an interest in keeping track of NTC (Net Tropical
Cyclone activity), the season is up to 224.8% as of 21Z today... still
3rd place overall since 1900.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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