After several days of slow "brewing", a large area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche was upgraded to TS Matthew based on an aircraft recon flight into it today. This is the 13th named storm of the season. The center was at 24.2N 93.8W and tracking E at 9kts. The maximum sustained winds are 35kts and the MSLP is 1001mb. The forecast is tricky because of its proximity to a large mid-latitude trough that is imposing hefty vertical shear over it. It should maintain intensity or perhaps strengthen a bit (thanks to baroclinic enhancement) as it heads generally NE, probably hitting the Florida panhandle late Sunday night. For those who have an interest in keeping track of NTC (Net Tropical Cyclone activity), the season is up to 224.8% as of 21Z today... still 3rd place overall since 1900.
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