Cristobal is the latest third named storm to form since Charlie in 1992 (named on Sep 22). You may recall from previous posts that 1992 was also the last year that both the A and the B storms became hurricanes. Well, if Cristobal strengthens into a hurricane (which it could), 1992 is ALSO the last time the A, B, and C storms all became hurricanes! And yet another similarity between 1992 and 2014 is that the A storm made landfall on the U.S. as a hurricane (though Andrew was a Category 5 and Arthur was a Category 2).
As of Monday morning, Cristobal is drifting north at about 3mph, and is centered just north of Mayaguana in the eastern Bahamas. The intensity estimate as of 8am EDT is 60mph with a 994mb central pressure. It is forecast to become a hurricane within the next day or two.
|Visible satellite image from 8:15am EDT. I overlaid the past track in light blue and marked the current center location with a light blue X. (NASA)|
The northward turn that was in question for so many days did finally happen on Sunday, and was the favored solution by the majority of models. There was only a slight chance for a westward track into south Florida, but given the potential impact there, it was worth monitoring that possibility very closely. The map below shows the surface pressure in line contours and the 500mb heights (steering features) in shaded contours as of this morning... Cristobal will head northeast into the trough (yellow).
|Surface pressure and 500mb height contours valid at 8am EDT today. (tropicaltidbits.com)|
|Monday morning's suite of model and consensus guidance. (UW-Milwaukee)|
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