TS Kyle is still far from the U.S. mainland and presents no threat. Although this morning's satellite imagery indicates that he is reorganizing slightly, the shear is still causing the convection to be well-separated from the deepest convection. At 15Z today, Kyle was located at 29.8N 64.8W (345km south of Bermuda) and stationary. Only slight strengthening to 45kts is forecast as he curves back to the east. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. Kyle will be remembered at the end of the season for contributing to so many Named Storm Days with so little movement... 9.25 NSD so far with another 3-4+ to add on and has only covered 15 degrees longitude and very little latitude in that time (for reference, Isidore contributed 8.5 NSD). At 15Z today, Lili was upgraded to a hurricane, the fourth of the season. Since yesterday, the satellite presentation has continually improved, with a cold CDO and classic bands. Her center has managed to avoid passing over land, successfully weaving between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba (look at a map, that's no easy task!). So although the outer bands had been disturbed by the 7,000'+ mountains on those islands, the inner core was always over the warm Caribbean. As of 15Z, Hurricane Lili was at 19.8N 80.0W (over Cayman Brac) and tracking WNW at 9kts. Intensity has reached 65kts and 986mb. Now that real organization is taking place and land is becoming less of a player, we should begin seeing more rapid intensification (although true "rapid" intensification is not forecast). The NHC forecast calls for her to be 105kts on Thursday morning at 8am, just 90 miles south of the western LA coast. Today's 06Z run of GFDL shows landfall on the TX/LA border on Thursday morning at 7am. The 00Z AVN shows landfall very near Lake Charles, LA at the same time. The 00Z NOGAPS run is bit slower and goes for landfall on the LA/TX border on Friday morning at about 1am. Keep in mind that times are still approximate, but the location is being narrowed down to western LA or extreme eastern TX as soon as early Thursday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for eastern Cuba and Jamaica; a Hurricane Warning is in effect for western and central Cuba, the Isle of Youth, and the Cayman Islands. I would not be surprised if a Hurricane Watch would be issued for the eastern TX and all of LA coasts today to expedite evacuations. As pointed out earlier, Lili is forecast by virtually every model to make landfall on the LA coast as a major hurricane on Thursday morning (exactly one week after Isidore made landfall at the same location), so prudent emergency management would call for optional evacuations beginning today and mandatory evacuations beginning Tuesday. The tropical wave in the central Atlantic mentioned in the past two updates has become less organized and should be beaten by shear in the near future.
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